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Forecasting India's Economic Growth: A Time Varying Parameter Regression Approach

Publication date

May, 2019

Details

Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies (https://doi.org/10.1080/17520843.2019.1603169)

Authors

Rudrani Bhattacharya, Parma Chakravartti and Sudipto Mundle

Abstract

Forecasting GDP growth is essential for effective and timely implementation of macroeconomic policies. This paper uses a principal component augmented Time Varying Parameter Regression (TVPR) approach to forecast real aggregate and sectoral growth rates for India. We estimate the model using a mix of fiscal, monetary, trade and production side-specific variables. To assess the importance of different growth drivers, three variants of the model are tried, namely, Demand-side, Supply-side and Combined models. We also find that TVPR model consistently outperforms constant parameter principal component augmented regression model and Dynamic Factor Model in terms of forecasting performance for all the three specifications.
 
KEYWORDS: Real GDP growth, forecasting, time-varying parameter regression model, dynamic factor model, India
 
JEL CLASIFICATION: C32, C5, O