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Encouraging private corporate investment in India

Publication date

Sep, 2020

Details

Published in 2020 Edited Book “Financial, Macro and Micro Econometrics Using R” by Hrishikesh D. Vinod ‬and C R Rao.

Authors

Lekha Chakraborty, Hirshikesh Vinod and Honey Karun

Abstract

A typical macroeconomic regression of private corporate investment on public infrastructure investment, rate of interest, private credit, capital flows and output gap involves a mixture of stationary and nonstationary variables. Moreover, the available data series (2011–16) for estimating the regression for India is too short for asymptotic statistical inference. Hence we use maximum entropy (ME) bootstrap from R package “meboot” to confirm positive role of public infrastructure investment. The significant result has policy implications in terms of the current debate whether public investment “crowds-in” rather than “crowds-out” private corporate investment in India. We use another R package “generalCorr” to study whether the right-hand side variables “approximately cause” private investment, or are subject to the endogeneity problem. While finding evidence supporting public infrastructure spending to encourage private investment in India, we highlight new R tools for estimation and inference in many macroeconomic regressions.

JEL Classification: E62C32H62
 
Keywords: Private investment; Time series; Bootstrap; Causality; Crowding out; Real interest rate; Fiscal policy; Monetary policy; Infrastructure investment