An autonomous research institute under the Ministry of Finance

 

Past projects

Sectoral Spending Effectiveness of Gender Budgeting on Gender Equality and Fiscal Space in Education and Health: A study of the Asia Pacific Region

  • Start date Sept., 2019
  • Completion date Dec., 2021
  • Sponsor Self-initiated project (earlier version was presented in the American Economic Association meetings in Atlanta)
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Focus

    This paper empirically analyses the impact of fiscal policy practices, with particular reference to the processes and analytical frameworks of gender budgeting, on ‘equally distributed equivalent’ variables of gender in the health and education sectors within the political economy framework in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. NIPFP has been a pioneer in gender budgeting and worked in close association with Ministry of Finance to institutionalise gender budgeting in 2004. Given that the NIPFP methodology of gender budgeting at the national and sub-national levels has remained unchanged, we can use time series data to analyse the impact of gender budgeting on gender equality outcomes and the fiscal space. The inferences from this study will provide an empirical review of gender budgeting across countries in the Asia Pacific with clear policy inputs for the Ministry of Finance. 


Public Finance for Children: State-level Analysis of Gujarat, Odisha, Karnataka and Telangana

  • Start date Aug., 2019
  • Completion date Dec., 2021
  • Sponsor BMGF under the Innovation in Public Finance project
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Consultants/Other authors Amandeep Kaur (with Anindita Ghosh [till December 2020] and Jannet Farida Jacob)
  • Focus
    Around 60 percent of school-age children are now in the category termed as ‘effectively out-of-school’. They are deprived of education due to the ‘digital divide’ (lack of access to Internet) — a situation that has emerged because of the pandemic. In this study, we explore child budgeting in the specific context of India’s Central and sub-national government responses to the pandemic, with a focus on the states of Karnataka, Gujarat, Odisha and  Telangana. The inferences from our study on child budgeting of these specific states will help the Ministry of Finance to strengthen child budgeting as a public financial management tool for accountability at the Central and State government levels.

A Study on Devolution of Funds to ULBs under State Finance Commission in Haryana: A Critical Review

  • Start date June, 2021
  • Completion date Dec., 2021
  • Sponsor Sixth State Finance Commission of Haryana
  • Project leader Manish Gupta
  • Consultants/Other authors Smriti Behl and Sampreet Kaur
  • Focus
    The study involves reviewing the reports of State Finance Commissions (SFCs) in Haryana, the methodology adopted by each of them in carrying out their assigned task and the recommendations made by them in devolving funds (devolution and grants) to ULBs in the state and suggest the devolution criteria, quantum, and distribution method among the ULBs of different categories to the Sixth SFC.

Fiscal Federalism in Global South

  • Start date Aug., 2019
  • Completion date Dec., 2021
  • Sponsor Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) under the Innovation in Public Finance project
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Consultants/Other authors Gurleen Kaur, Amandeep Kaur, Jannet Farida Jacob, Anindita Ghosh and Divy Rangan
  • Focus
    Preparation of conference proceedings of Federalism in Global South. The fiscal federalism – revenue assignment, expenditure assignment, intergovernmental fiscal transfers – of Kenya, Ethiopia, South Africa, Nepal and India are discussed in this project.

Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer on Improved Health Interventions among Pregnant Women Labourers: Evidence from Mukhya Mantri Shramik Seva (Prasuti Sahayata) Yojana, Madhya Pradesh

  • Start date Feb., 2020
  • Completion date Nov., 2021
  • Sponsor National Health Mission, Madhya Pradesh
  • Project leader Bhabesh Hazarika, Dinesh Kumar Nayak, NR Bhanumurthy
  • Consultants/Other authors Kanika Gupta, Manish Prashad
  • Focus
    The Madhya Pradesh Government has been implementing a state-specific conditional cash transfer scheme for the registered women labourers, the Mukhya Mantri Shramik Seva (Prasuti Sahayata) Yojana (MMSSPSY), since 2018. Given the underlying importance of the scheme towards the overall improvement of the health of pregnant women (PW), newborn babies and mothers, the study focuses on analysing the extent to which MMSSPSY has led to an uptake of improved nutritional and healthcare services among the registered (PW) labourers. It also analyses implementation and governance issues such as scheme awareness, fund flow (design and delay), expenditure profile, and perceptions of frontline health personnel about the scheme implementation.

Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers for Education in India

  • Start date April, 2021
  • Completion date Oct., 2021
  • Sponsor The World Bank
  • Project leader Sukanya Bose
  • Other faculty Sri Hari Nayudu A.
  • Consultants/Other authors Noopur and
  • Focus
    This study analyses the trends and patterns in intergovernmental transfers for education – school education and higher education – across three Finance Commission periods (2005-20) which saw a number of important policy-induced changes in the overall fiscal framework. The analysis is conducted for 20 Indian states, including three special category states.

Two studies: (1) Centrally Sponsored Schemes (CSS): Restructuring and Rationalization and (2) Post-Covid Fiscal Framework: Issues and Options were completed for EAC-PM during the year

  • Start date July, 2021
  • Completion date Sept., 2021
  • Sponsor Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM)
  • Project leader Pinaki Chakraborty
  • Consultants/Other authors A.N. Jha, Yash Jaluka
  • Focus
    (1) The study identified the various issues in CSS and suggested design and operational changes that can be made to improve them. It was a comprehensive analysis of the rationale, constitutional background, evaluation, recommendations of past committees, current framework and suggestions for resolving the existing issues and challenges in them.
    (2) The study analysed the responses of various governments across the spectrum on their efforts to contain the fiscal deficit in the post-Covid fiscal framework. The study looked at various issues and options and made specific recommendations on targeting the revenue deficit as well as an appropriate level of fiscal deviations.

State of the Economy and Growth Outlook: Note for EAC-PM – Four quarterly reports were completed for EAC-PM during the year

  • Start date Oct., 2020
  • Completion date Sept., 2021
  • Sponsor Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM)
  • Project leader Pinaki Chakraborty
  • Other faculty R. Kavita Rao, Lekha Chakraborty, Pratap R. Jena, Manish Gupta, Rudrani Bhattacharya, Amey Sapre, Shruti Tripathi, and Dinesh K. Nayak
  • Focus
    Quarterly assessment and growth outlook of the economy. Four quarterly reports were submitted namely: (i) June-September 2020; (ii) October-December 2020 and January-March 2021; (iii) April-June 2021 and; (iv) July-August 2021.

Sub-national Fiscal Sustainability Analysis in India – Odisha and Himachal Pradesh

  • Start date April, 2021
  • Completion date Sept., 2021
  • Sponsor The World Bank, New Delhi
  • Project leader Pinaki Chakraborty
  • Other faculty Manish Gupta
  • Consultants/Other authors Smriti Mehra
  • Focus
    The objective of the study was to carry out a medium term fiscal sustainability analysis for two Indian states – Odisha and Himachal Pradesh. This included building scenarios based on the specific policy priorities and constraints of each state. The Himachal part of the report could not be completed because of non-availability of data from the State Government

Bi-annual Review of the Compliance of the Provisions of Madhya Pradesh FRBM Act for 2017-18, 2018-19, and December 2020 to September 2021

  • Start date Dec., 2020
  • Completion date Sept., 2021
  • Sponsor Government of Madhya Pradesh
  • Project leader Pratap Ranjan Jena
  • Consultants/Other authors Abhishek Singh
  • Focus
    This evaluation report is prepared and submitted as part of an independent review process of state finances and compliance to the state Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBM Act). The evaluation report summarizes the key conclusions and lessons of the fiscal management process for these two years. In addition to highlighting the state’s compliance to the fiscal responsibility Act targets, the report contains broad trend of fiscal management. Budgetary projections relating to avenue and expenditure were analysed keeping the outturns in consideration to assess the ability of the State Government to implement the budgetary plans.

Emerging Issues in State Finances: Analysis of State Budgets 2021-22

  • Start date April, 2021
  • Completion date Sept., 2021
  • Sponsor NIPFP
  • Project leader Pinaki Chakraborty and Manish Gupta
  • Focus
    The study examines emerging issues in state finances and the impact the Covid-19 pandemic had on the finances of State governments by analysing data from the latest budgets (i.e., budgets for fiscal 2021-22) of all 28 states.

An Enquiry into Exit from Government Schools

  • Start date April, 2019
  • Completion date Sept., 2021
  • Sponsor Azim Premji University Research Grant, 2018
  • Project leader Sukanya Bose
  • Consultants/Other authors Priyanta Ghosh, Manohar Boda and Arvind Sardana (Eklavya, Madhya Pradesh)
  • Focus
    The study tries to unpack the phenomenon of exit from government schools with a focus on the exit at the bottom of the pyramid. In attempting to understand the market phenomenon of exit, public provisioning and regulation of the market – the two primary economic roles of the state – are studied. The study is located in the city of Delhi. (i) Low-fee private schools (LFPS) have emerged as close substitutes for government schools, though no official data exists for this informal sector in schooling. The study tries to establish the size of the LFPS sector, information that is vital to any planning; (ii) with the growing size as well as the type of players in the private sector, the regulatory role of the state becomes extremely important. How do the laws outlining the regulation of the private sector of schooling translate into actual practices in the field? (iii) the study presents estimates for public resource requirement to meet the demand-supply gap for schooling taking into account the existing deficits, and the potential sources of demand.

Medium Term Fiscal Plan for Sikkim: 2021-22 to 2023-24

  • Start date June, 2021
  • Completion date Aug., 2021
  • Sponsor Government of Sikkim
  • Project leader Pratap Ranjan Jena
  • Focus
    The report presented the Medium Term Fiscal Plan (MTFP) for the Government of Sikkim for the year 2021-22 to 2023-24. The MTFP 2021-22 provided fiscal policy objectives and projected fiscal targets in the ensuing budget year and two outward years. The report was prepared based on existing macro-fiscal environment and taking into consideration the requirements of the FRBM Act in Sikkim. The report projected the fiscal variables for three years including the budget year aligning with the stipulation of the FRBM Act.

Environmental/ Ecological Fiscal Transfers

  • Start date Aug., 2019
  • Completion date Aug., 2021
  • Sponsor Self-Initiated
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Other faculty Amandeep Kaur and Ranjan Mohanty
  • Focus
    Against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, the paper explores the empirical evidence for flypaper effects in the ecological fiscal space in India. Using the panel data models, we analyse whether the impact of intergovernmental fiscal transfers or a state’s own revenue determines the expenditure commitments on ecology at the state level. The econometric analysis shows that the aggregate intergovernmental fiscal transfers rather than a state’s own income determine the ecological expenditure at sub-national government levels. The evidence for the efficacy of flypaper effects either stem from bureaucratic fiscal behaviour or the fiscal illusion of the economic agents about the exogeneity of ecological fiscal space. The results hold when the models are controlled for ecological outcomes and demographic variables. However, at the disaggregated levels of intergovernmental fiscal transfers – grants and tax devolution – the evidence for flypaper effects is mixed. This result has policy implications and provides empirical evidence to the Ministry to Finance about the efficacy of intergovernmental transfers on ecological expenditure at the State government level. The paper was presented at the International Institute of Public Finance Meetings 2021, at University of Iceland, Reykjavik (online), 18 August 2021, and also in the NIPFP-IIPF international conference on Public Finance, 29 June 2021. This paper was published as Working Paper at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, New York, in January 2022.

Data for Justice Challenge

  • Start date Dec., 2020
  • Completion date June, 2021
  • Sponsor Vayam Forum for Citizenship
  • Project leader Ila Patnaik
  • Consultants/Other authors Devendra Damle, Tushar Anand, Karan Gulati
  • Focus
    The objective of the study is to create a dataset to understand India’s contract enforcement machinery.
    This will include:
    Time series dataset at case-level on contract enforcement litigation, tracking disputes related to contracts across select district and high courts across states. The data itself will be released periodically as a product.
    Contract Enforcement Index, which will be generated from the aforementioned data. The index will be computed at periodic intervals in order to monitor and compare the performance of various courts and states on this basis. The results generated can then be used to inform policy decisions.
    Contingent on the availability of usable data, the objective is to develop a Text Processing Module to extract information pertinent to contract enforcement from the unstructured text of the judgment/order by way of regular expression matching or on a classification algorithm.
     

Public Procurement Mechanism in India: Exploring the Alternatives for L1

  • Start date Feb., 2020
  • Completion date June, 2021
  • Sponsor Self-initiated
  • Project leader Bhabesh Hazarika, Ayushi Jain
  • Focus

    The present study focuses on the mechanism of public procurement in India. For many decades, now, the least cost selection (L1) is method has been followed for public procurement in goods, works and services. Various institutions such as the Central Vigilance Commission (CVC), NITI Aayog, FICCI etc. have suggested the need to replace this with a more suitable method which focuses both on technical as well as financial aspects of procurement. This study highlights the issues associated with the public procurement mechanism and suggests quality and cost based selection (QCBS) as an alternative mechanism which is more efficient in every aspect.The present study focuses on the mechanism of public procurement in India. For many decades, now, the least cost selection (L1) is method has been followed for public procurement in goods, works and services. Various institutions such as the Central Vigilance Commission (CVC), NITI Aayog, FICCI etc. have suggested the need to replace this with a more suitable method which focuses both on technical as well as financial aspects of procurement. This study highlights the issues associated with the public procurement mechanism and suggests quality and cost based selection (QCBS) as an alternative mechanism which is more efficient in every aspect.


The Review of Compliance of the Government of Sikkim to the State FRBM Act for the year 2017-18

  • Start date Dec., 2020
  • Completion date June, 2021
  • Sponsor Government of Sikkim
  • Project leader Pratap Ranjan Jena
  • Other faculty Satadru Sikdar
  • Focus

    The review report assessed the fiscal stance of the State Government and implementation of the provisions of the FRBM Act as per the recommendations of the Union Finance Commission. The report prepared by the Institute was placed in the state legislature and formed an important element of the established accountability structure. Review of compliance of FRBM Act of a state government provides an institutional mechanism for an independent fiscal review as recommended by the Thirteenth Finance Commission. While Finance Commissions suggested forming fiscal councils, the FRBM Act of Sikkim provides for an independent review of its FRBM Act. 


New techniques for forecasting growth and inflation

  • Start date June, 2020
  • Completion date May, 2021
  • Sponsor Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance
  • Project leader Sabyasachi Kar and the Macro-finance group
  • Focus

    This working paper conducted a critical review of the literature concerned with using Big Data and machine learning techniques to forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation, along with examining their applicability in the context of a developing country, taking India as a case-study. It will first address existing issues in data collection for GDP growth and inflation forecasting and issues related to Big Data. It reviewed of pre-existing forecasting techniques in the context of India and their efficacy, moving on to examining the advantages and disadvantages of machine learning techniques in the context of a developing country.


Covid-19 and Analysing Economic Stimulus Packages in Asia Pacific

  • Start date Aug., 2020
  • Completion date May, 2021
  • Sponsor BMGF under the Innovation in Public Finance Project
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty (with Amandeep Kaur, Divy Rangan and Jannet Farida Jacob)
  • Focus
    The paper analyses the fiscal and monetary policy components of the economic stimulus packages, incorporating gender and human rights assessments. The four specific components are:
    􀀁 Food security
    􀀁 Social protection
    􀀁 Social infrastructure and service provisioning and
    􀀁 Economic activity and employment.
    The empirical evidence from the Asia-Pacific countries can provide insights to the Ministry of Finance in designing economic stimulus packages to deal with the second wave of the pandemic. The study was published as an NIPFP monograph in May 2021. The findings were presented in the UN and ILO meeting in Geneva in November 2021.

     


Central Bank Digital Currencies

  • Start date June, 2020
  • Completion date May, 2021
  • Sponsor Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance
  • Project leader Sabyasachi Kar and the Macro-finance group
  • Focus

    The paper identified foundational themes such as key design features for both wholesale and retail/general purpose central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), motivations for introducing CBDCs, practical implications for public policy objectives such as financial stability, monetary policy, cross border payments etc., and key legal and regulatory considerations germane to issuing a CBDC.  More importantly, the working paper identified the pros and cons of issuing a CBDC in the context of an emerging market economy like India.


Utilizing Pensions and Insurance Pools in Infrastructure Investments

  • Start date June, 2020
  • Completion date May, 2021
  • Sponsor Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance
  • Project leader Sabyasachi Kar and the Macro-finance group
  • Focus
    The two-fold objective of the study was to:
    undertake a comparative study of the structure and regulation of the pension and insurance industry in India with that of countries such as Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, China and Brazil; and 
    recommend measures to enhance the flow of investment funds with pension and insurance funds into infrastructure sector and alternative investment funds (AIFs)/venture capital funds (VCFs)/start-ups, and identify high level reforms to grow the Indian pension and insurance pools in the medium and long term.
     

Study on Public Procurement of Pharmaceutical Drugs and Quality Control

  • Start date June, 2020
  • Completion date April, 2021
  • Sponsor Thakur Family Foundation, Inc.
  • Project leader Ila Patnaik
  • Consultants/Other authors Harleen Kaur, Madhur Mehta, Ashim Kapoor and Siddharth Srivastava
  • Focus
    The objective of the study is to:
    􀀁 Research on Central and State government expenditure on public procurements; the procurement process evaluation; the tendering process;  blacklisting policies; how can India leverage the public procurement system to improve drug quality across the pharmaceutical industry; is there a need for public procurement law specific to procurement of drugs; profile of national companies which supply drugs to states; role of information about not of standard quality (NSQ) drugs published by the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation (CDSCO) on Sugam portal in the procurement process; and what actions do agencies take on repeat offenders.
    􀀁 The study will produce two papers for the research study on public procurement by a representative cross-section of Central and state public  procurement agencies from a quality perspective.

How Effective is e-NAM in Integrating Food Commodity Prices in India? Evidence from the Onion Market

  • Start date April, 2020
  • Completion date March, 2021
  • Sponsor NIPFP
  • Project leader Rudrani Bhattacharya
  • Consultants/Other authors Sabarni Chowdhury
  • Focus

    A series of market distortionary rules and regulations hinder the development of an integrated agricultural market in India. In order to ensure greater transparency and uniformity of food commodity prices across states, various reform measures have to be undertaken to develop agriculture marketing. The Central government established e-NAM in 2016 as a first step toward inducing competition in the agricultural markets. e-NAM is a pan-India electronic trading portal which integrates the existing Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) mandis to create a unified national market for agricultural commodities.  This paper examines whether the introduction of e-NAM has improved the spatial integration of onion markets in India. Using cointegration analysis, the study investigates onion market price integration of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan and West Bengal with the average wholesale onion price of India for the period 2010-2016 (before e-NAM ) and 2016-2019 (after e-NAM ). It provides evidence in favour of market integration for the period 2016-2019, while multiple relations are found to govern onion prices across states during 2010-2016. The evidence, in effect, suggests that the introduction of e-NAM in 2016 has improved market integration for onion in India.


Study of legal considerations for the implementation of the spatial planning component of the Shyama Prasad Mukherji Rurban Mission

  • Start date Jan., 2021
  • Completion date March, 2021
  • Sponsor Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India (MoRD)
  • Project leader Ila Patnaik
  • Consultants/Other authors Devendra Damle, Tushar Anand, Karan Gulati
  • Focus
    This project was done on a voluntary basis upon a special request from the Ministry of Rural Development and no remuneration was charged for the work. 
    The study is a research product that aims to produce a report to:
    Identify potential challenges in the implementation of the Shyama Prasad Mukherji Rurban Mission (SPMRM) with respect to:
    o The jurisdiction of land revenue departments over agricultural land, and how it can affect the scheme’s objectives of preparing spatial plans, and zoning regulation and enforcement mechanism for clusters of villages under the Panchayati Raj Acts of the respective state.
    o Special considerations for spatial plan preparation and its enforcement in Schedule V and VI areas, and gram panchayats governed by the Panchayats (Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act, 1996, and Forest Rights Act, 2006.
    o Implications of notifying and enforcing the Town and Country Planning Acts in rural areas via a study of two sample states.
    Devise appropriate recommendations to mitigate the identified issues for successful implementation of SPMRM.
     

Data Governance Network

  • Start date April, 2019
  • Completion date March, 2021
  • Sponsor IDFC Foundation and Omidyar Network
  • Project leader Renuka Sane
  • Consultants/Other authors Rishab Bailey, Smriti Parsheera, Faiza Rahman, Varun Sen Bahl, Trishee Goyal
  • Focus
    The research areas proposed under the study are:
    Identify what drives the understanding of privacy policies— whether factors such as age, education, intelligence quotient, comfort with English, urbanization, familiarity with Internet-based services, all play a role in how an individual evaluates what is on offer. It also proposes a survey to explore different concepts and modalities (of expression) of privacy rights in India. 
    Agency design for the Data Protection Authority (DPA). The ongoing work on the creation of the data protection framework is expected to create a new regulator, the Data Protection Authority. The DPA is expected to be entrusted with significant regulatory and supervisory functions. In this study, we propose to devise an implementation plan for the creation of the DPA.
    The current surveillance related laws, policies and mechanisms in India. The study proposes to identify gaps in the present systems and suggest policy initiatives for reforming the surveillance laws.
    Studying the privacy issues around the use of specific technologies/ applications such as drones, CCTVs, facial recognition, cell tower tracking, encryption tools, etc.
     

Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan and Finance Solutions for Lahaul-Pangi and Kinnaur Landscapes in Himachal Pradesh

  • Completion date March, 2021
  • Sponsor United Nations Development Programme
  • Project leader Rita Pandey, Rathin Roy
  • Consultants/Other authors Priya Yadav, Anuja Malhotra and Garima Jasuja
  • Focus
    To identify threats to biodiversity in the Lahaul-Pangi and Kinnaur Landscapes in the state and make policy recommendations for improving the status of biodiversity, natural resources and ecosystem services in them.  
    Prepare a process document for the implementation of two financial solutions for the conservation of the snow leopard landscape — Lahaul-Pangi Landscape and Kinnaur Landscape.
     

Updating the Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (BSAP) of Himachal Pradesh and Preparing the Resource Mobilization Strategy for Implementing the BSAP with focus on Lahaul-Pangi and Kinnaur Landscapes

  • Completion date March, 2021
  • Sponsor United Nations Development Programme
  • Project leader Rita Pandey, Rathin Roy
  • Consultants/Other authors Priya Yadav, Anuja Malhotra and Garima Jasuja
  • Focus
    To update the existing Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (BSAP) of Himachal Pradesh, based on current state priorities and in alignment with national and global priorities of biodiversity conservation and wildlife protection. 
    To develop a resource mobilization strategy for implementing BSAP in Himachal Pradesh. 
    Prepare a process document for the implementation of two financial solutions for the conservation of the snow leopard landscape — the Lahaul-Pangi Landscape and Kinnaur Landscape.
     

Updating the Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (BSAP) of Sikkim and Preparing the Resource Mobilization Strategy for Implementing the BSAP with focus on Kanchendzonga - Upper Teesta Valley

  • Completion date March, 2021
  • Sponsor United Nations Development Programme
  • Project leader Rita Pandey, Rathin Roy
  • Consultants/Other authors Priya Yadav and Anuja Malhotra
  • Focus
    To update the existing Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (BSAP) of Sikkim, based on current state priorities and in alignment with national and global priorities of biodiversity conservation and wildlife protection.  
    To develop a resource mobilization strategy for implementing BSAP in Sikkim.  
    Prepare a process document for the implementation of one or two financial solutions for the conservation of the snow leopard landscape, the Khangchendzonga Landscape, located in North Sikkim district.
     

Revenue Impact of GST for the Government of NCT of Delhi

  • Start date July, 2020
  • Completion date Feb., 2021
  • Sponsor The Department of Trade and Taxes, Government of NCT of Delhi
  • Project leader Sacchidananda Mukherjee
  • Consultants/Other authors Shivani Badola
  • Focus
    Following its introduction, the goods and services tax (GST) has subsumed a substantial share of the own tax revenue of state governments. Given the revenue importance of GST, understanding the potential revenue risks associated with revenue realization from GST is important for individual states. Ongoing shortfall in GST collections is another area which makes states vulnerable to revenue shocks. Therefore, it will be important for states to look for alternative revenue sources as well as strengthen the GST administration for effective enforcement of tax compliance in order to meet the revenue targets. The emerging revenue challenges of states require an in-depth assessment of the GST system so that additional resources can be mobilized. In this context, the Department of Trade and Taxes, Government of the NCT of Delhi approached the NIPFP to conduct a study to assess the revenue performance of Delhi in GST collections.
     

MCA Research Programme

  • Start date Feb., 2019
  • Completion date Jan., 2021
  • Sponsor Ministry of Corporate Affairs
  • Project leader Ila Patnaik
  • Consultants/Other authors Pratik Datta, Radhika Pandey, Sudipto Banerjee, Karthik Suresh, Medha Raju, Shubho Roy
  • Focus
    The proposed framework has been designed for a formal research programme between MCA and NIPFP for three years. Under this programme, NIPFP will provide necessary legal, policy and research support to MCA in connection with the statutory responsibilities of the MCA (Feb 2019–Jan 2021).

Nutrition Public Expenditure Review: Evidence from Gujarat

  • Start date Aug., 2018
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor BMGF under Innovation in Public Finance project
  • Project leader Amandeep Kaur and Lekha Chakraborty
  • Consultants/Other authors Ruzel Shrestha, Komal Jain, Anindita Ghosh and Jannet Farida Jacob
  • Focus

    Against the backdrop of the National Nutrition Mission, this paper undertakes a nutrition public expenditure review in the State of Gujarat. The anthropometric data analysis shows that malnutrition is still a silent emergency in the state, though there has been an improvement over the years. The fiscal space for nutrition in a multi-sectoral framework was analysed and only an insignificant portion of state budget was found to be allotted to nutrition-related spending. The public expenditure incidence analysis of the Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) showed that there are access differentials in the units utilized patterns, and fiscal marksmanship analysis shows that there is huge deviation between what is allotted and what is spent. The outcome parameters show the differential with other states as well as inter-district differentials within Gujarat that persist in the anthropometric indicators relate to undernutrition. This calls for strengthening the nutrition-public expenditure review in the state as part of the public financial management.


Analysis of State Budgets 2018-19: Key Issues and Challenges

  • Start date Jan., 2019
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor BMGF under Innovation in Public Finance project
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Other faculty Manish Gupta and Amandeep Kaur
  • Focus

    This study is an outcome of the research project, `Innovations in Public Finance’, supported by a grant from the Gates Foundation. The central theme of this report is the `Budget Credibility and Fiscal Forecasting Errors of 28 States in India’ led by Dr. Pinaki Chakraborty. Dr. Chakraborty presented the findings of this study during the NIPFP Annual State Finances meeting at the India International Centre, New Delhi, in August 2019. The other members of the team are Prof. Lekha Chakraborty, Dr. Manish Gupta and Ms Amandeep Kaur. The theme paper on budget credibility was presented by Lekha Chakraborty at the 75th meeting of the International Institute of Public Finance in Glasgow, Scotland, in 21-23 August 2019. The completed project report was published as a NIPFP monograph in 2020. 


Determinants of Private Corporate Investment in India: Maximum Entropy Ensembles

  • Start date Aug., 2018
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor Self-initiated project, (research collaboration with Fordham University, New York).
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Focus

    The two papers prepared under this initiative were published in the Edward Elgar Handbook on “Federalism and Gender” series and published as an AusTax Policy blog of the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute (TTPI) at Crawford School of the Australian National University in May 2021.


Covid 19 and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Responses in India. March – December, 2020

  • Start date March, 2021
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor Self-initiated project, two papers (research collaboration) published.
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Other faculty Divy Rangan
  • Focus
    The two papers prepared under this initiative were published in the Economic and Political Weekly and Prajnan, the journal of National Institute of Bank Management (RBI research institute). These papers looked into the fiscal and monetary policy responses to the pandemic in India. 
    The paper published in Economic and Political Weekly was later included in the book, Indian Economic Development edited by Uma Kapila. 
     

Nowcasting India’s Quarterly GDP Growth: A Factor-Augmented Time Varying Regression Coefficient Model.

  • Start date Nov., 2019
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor NIPFP and National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)
  • Project leader Rudrani Bhattacharya
  • Consultants/Other authors Sudipto Mundle (NCAER), Bornali Bhandari (NCAER) and Sabarni Chowdhury
  • Focus

    Gauging the pulse of the economy in real time is essential for timely implementation of short to medium term policies. In this study, we nowcast quarterly YoY GDP growth, which is essentially predicting the GDP growth for the quarter Qt, when the GDP number for Qt is not yet released, using information from high frequency indicators (we use monthly indicators for our analysis) spanning that particular quarter Qt. The GDP growth is regressed on a set of unobserved factors estimated from a large set of monthly indicators, where the regression coefficients are assumed to vary over time, and thus takes care of the structural changes endogenously.  The model is estimated in a state-space format. We find that this model captures the turning points of the Indian growth trajectory better than alternative models such as the dynamic factor model.


Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in Ethiopia” (Certification Programme: NIPFP, India; Forum of Federations, Canada; House of Federation, Ethiopia and Meles Zenawi Leadership Academy, Ethiopia)

  • Start date Jan., 2019
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor BMGF under Innovation in Public Finance project
  • Project leader Lekha Chakraborty
  • Other faculty Manish Gupta
  • Focus

    Design the training programme and curriculum in co-ordination with partner institutions and deliver lectures during the two weeks training programme in Bishofta, Addis Ababa.


Teaching Note: Theory of Multi-Level Government

  • Start date Jan., 2020
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor Indira Gandhi National Open University
  • Project leader Mukesh Anand
  • Consultants/Other authors Rahul Chakraborty
  • Focus

    Governance in a multi-level government system envisages well defined relations, particularly financial, for each level of government to discharge its functions efficiently. Over the years, far-reaching changes have come about in such systems whereby ‘private corporate bodies’ and ‘international agencies’ too participate in governance. These facilitate the transition from a hierarchical form to ‘cooperative structures of federalism’.


NIPFP-CAG Research Programme

  • Start date June, 2019
  • Completion date Dec., 2020
  • Sponsor Comptroller and Auditor General of India
  • Project leader Ila Patnaik
  • Other faculty Radhika Pandey
  • Consultants/Other authors Medha Raju, Harleen Kaur, Rachna Sharma
  • Focus
    The proposed framework has been designed for a formal research programme between the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) and NIPFP for two years. Under this programme, NIPFP will provide:
    research and analytical support to the CAG in policy formulation on various issues related to the research themes;
    provide recommendation on questions related to governance, public administration and performance, and value for money;
    provide technical support on the various aspects of public finance (including taxation, government debt, and expenditure), and financial regulation; and
    provide technical support and research on different sectors audited by the CAG which shall include approaches to auditing, identification of benchmarks.
     

Forecasting Consumer Price Index Inflation in India: Vector Error Correction Mechanism Vs. Dynamic Factor Model Approach for Non-Stationary Time Series

  • Start date Sept., 2019
  • Completion date Sept., 2020
  • Sponsor NIPFP
  • Project leader Rudrani Bhattacharya
  • Consultants/Other authors Migankshi Kapoor (BITS, Pilani)
  • Focus

    Short to medium term forecasting of the inflation rate is important for economic decision making by economic agents and timely implementation of monetary policy. In this study, we develop two alternative forecasting models for year-on-year (YOY) inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in India, using a large number of macroeconomic indicators. The YOY CPI inflation and its predictive indicators are found to be non-stationary and cointegrated. To address this issue, we employ the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) modified for non-stationary time series to forecast CPI inflation. We find that in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the VECM model performs marginally better than the DFM model. However, both models are found to have the same predictive accuracy using the Diebold-Mariano test.


Research on the process of disinvestment at DIPAM

  • Completion date Sept., 2020
  • Sponsor Department of Investment and Public Asset Management
  • Project leader Renuka Sane
  • Consultants/Other authors Dudipto Banerjee Sristhi Sharma Karthik Suresh
  • Focus
    The objective is to provide research and intellectual inputs for:
    • DIPAM's five-year vision plan; 
    • review of the present approaches for disinvestment;
    • new forms of disinvestment
    • analysing the already completed disinvestment transactions;
    • methods for selling shares on a regular and predictable basis.

Study on Employment Generation under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban)

  • Start date Dec., 2018
  • Completion date Sept., 2020
  • Sponsor Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs
  • Project leader NR Bhanumurthy
  • Other faculty Bhabesh Hazarika, Dinesh Kumar Nayak
  • Consultants/Other authors Kanika Gupta, Tanvi Bramhe, Ashok Bhakar
  • Focus

    The Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban) (PMAY-U) is one of the flagship programmes of the Government of India with the objective of achieving the long-term goal of ‘Housing for All by 2020’. This study analyses the performance of the programme and its overall impact on the economy. Assessing the employment effect of the investment made under PMAY-U, the study estimated that the programme generated sizeable employment (mandays) in the economy through its direct and indirect channels. The study also noted positive impacts of the schemes in terms of a few tangible and intangible benefits to the beneficiary households.


Financial Aspects of National Health Mission: Impact and Learnings for future

  • Start date Jan., 2019
  • Completion date July, 2020
  • Sponsor NITI Aayog
  • Project leader Mita Choudhury
  • Other faculty Ranjan Kumar Mohanty
  • Focus

    The next phase of the National Health Mission is scheduled to commence next year. This study undertook an analysis of the financial contributions of the scheme in the health spending of states, and highlighted specific factors affecting them. The analysis suggested that the scheme contributed to reduction of inequality in health spending across states and added funds to the lower tiers of the health pyramid. However, the contribution of the scheme towards strengthening health systems in relatively poor performing ‘high-focus’ states was limited. Lack of complementary inputs in states, capacity issues and weak public financial management affected the performance of the scheme.


Updating of State Finance Data of States Budgets:2021-22 Compiling Information and Making of Macro Tables for the use of the Faculty in Their Academic Activities

  • Start date April, 2020
  • Completion date June, 2020
  • Sponsor NIPFP
  • Project leader Rohit Dutta and Amar Nath
  • Focus

    The information had been compiled and shared with the faculty in soft copy immediately after the presentation of state budgets. 


Measuring Tax Effort and Efficiency for Indian States

  • Start date Nov., 2018
  • Completion date April, 2020
  • Sponsor Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
  • Project leader R. Kavita Rao
  • Other faculty D.P. Sen Gupta, Sacchidananda Mukherjee, Suranjali Tandon and Sri Hari Nayudu
  • Focus

    The federal structure of India divided taxation powers between the Union and state governments on certain principles. However, states have lost jurisdiction over many taxes with the introduction of GST, since many state taxes were subsumed into the new tax. The extent of consequent revenue losses to states is not clear. On the other hand, the revenue situation of the states has not improved sufficiently. Despite tax efforts by state governments, improvements in own tax revenues are marginal. Against this background, states need to focus on the other existing taxes to improve their own tax revenues. The major revenue yielding taxes to states in the post-GST regime are excise tax and stamp duty and registration fees. This study attempts to measure tax capacity and tax effort in collecting stamp duty and registration fee across different Indian states.


Indian School of Business – Digital Identity Research Initiative (DIRI)

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Indian School of Business
  • Project leader Renuka Sane
  • Focus
    The DIRI at ISB conducts research on various issues related to digital identity, with a focus on Aadhaar. It is also creating a network of research fellows for this purpose. The key objective of the study is to examine the implementation of Section 5 of the Aadhaar Act that deals with special measures for the enrolment of vulnerable groups to understand the gaps in the process and suggest possible ways to address them. The study will make  recommendations on the best practices that can assist in strengthening the participation of these groups in Aadhaar-related processes and similar digital identity systems

Memorandum of Cooperation for 2019 with FNF for Organizing a Conference on the Regulation of Emerging Technologies in India

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Friedrich Naumann Stiftung für die Freiheit (FNF)
  • Project leader Renuka Sane
  • Consultants/Other authors Rishab Bailey, Smriti Parsheera, Faiza Rahman
  • Focus
     FNF has signed an agreement for the year 2019–20 with the objective of organizing a conference on the regulation of emerging technologies in India.

The Review of Compliance of the Government of Sikkim to the State FRBM Act for the Year 2016–17

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Government of Sikkim
  • Project leader Pratap Ranjan Jena
  • Focus
    The report assessed the fiscal stance of the state government while implementing the provisions of FRBM Act for the year 2016–17 as per the amendments to the Act in accordance with the recommendations of the 14th Finance Commission. 

Evaluation of Governance Parameters of Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana- Gramin (PMAY-G)

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Ministry of Rural Developments
  • Project leader N. R. Bhanumurthy
  • Other faculty H. K. Amarnath, Bhabesh Hazarika
  • Consultants/Other authors Krishna Sharma, Kanika Gupta, Tanvi Brahme

Macro-Fiscal Linkages for the 15th Finance Commission

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor 15th Finance Commission
  • Project leader N.R. Bhanumurthy
  • Other faculty Sukanya Bose
  • Consultants/Other authors Sakshi Satija
  • Focus

    At the request of the 15th Finance Commission, the Institute undertook a study to assess the impact of higher devolution to the states under the 14th Finance Commission on various macroeconomic parameters such as GDP growth, inflation, fiscal deficit and public debt. Further, the study also proposed a new FRBM roadmap and the feasibility of achieving a US$ 5 trillion economy by the end of the 15th Finance Commission award period.


Assessing the Impact of Various Subsidies Extended by Coffee Board to Farmers and Exporters

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Coffee Board
  • Project leader N.R. Bhanumurthy
  • Other faculty Bhabesh Hazarika
  • Consultants/Other authors Priya Keshari
  • Focus
    Coffee Board and the Government of India have been providing a number of subsidies to coffee planters as well as exporters over a long period of time. This study was aimed at understanding the impact of these subsidies on the increase in area under coffee cultivation as well the cost of cultivation

Research Project (Macroeconomics) – Financial Structure, Institutional Quality and Monetary Policy Transmission: A Meta Analysis

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
  • Project leader Shruti Tripathi
  • Consultants/Other authors Sahana Roy Chowdhury (IMI, Kolkata), Sabarni Chowdhury
  • Focus
    The long-standing empirical literature of monetary policy transmission acknowledges the weak transmission of monetary policy shocks to real activities and inflation in emerging economies. A fragile financial system, a low level of financial integration and weak institutions are often cited as the reasons for the lack of monetary policy transmission in these economies. This paper investigates the extent to which these factors explain the variation in the extent of monetary policy transmission in a comprehensive set of developed and developing economies using a meta-analysis framework. We find that the degree of financial development captured by various financial indicators explains cross-country variations in the magnitude and time lag of monetary policy transmission. We also examine the role of financial accelerator in transmission magnitude to output growth.

Study on Taxation of Capital Markets Undertaken for the Department of Economic Affairs

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), MoF
  • Project leader R. Kavita Rao
  • Other faculty Suranjali Tandon
  • Consultants/Other authors D.P. Sengupta

Medium Term Fiscal Plan for Sikkim: 2020–21 to 2022–23

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor Government of Sikkim
  • Project leader Pratap Ranjan Jena
  • Focus
    The report presented the Medium Term Fiscal Plan (MTFP) for the Government of Sikkim for the years 2020–21 to 2022–23. The MTFP 2020–21 provided fiscal policy objectives and projected fiscal targets in the ensuing budget year and two outward years. The report was based on the existing macro-fiscal environment, taking into consideration the requirements of the FRBM Act in Sikkim. The report projected the fiscal variables for three years, including the budget year, aligning with the stipulation of the FRBM Act.

Analysing Household Expenditure on Health from the 71st Round of Survey by the National Sample Survey Organization, India

  • Completion date March, 2020
  • Sponsor World Health Organization
  • Project leader Mita Choudhury
  • Consultants/Other authors Jay Dev Dubey, Bidisha Mondal
  • Focus
    The analysis provides a baseline understanding of the nature, extent and effect of Out of Pocket Expenditure (OOPE) on health care in India. It could be used as a benchmark to track India’s march towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC).