An autonomous research institute under the Ministry of Finance

 

Events

Seminar

The 17th 5-Institute Budget Seminar 2023: Unpacking the Union Budget 2023-24

  • Date Mon, 06 February, 2023
  • Time 10:30 AM - 01:00 PM
  • Venue T2 Auditorium, NCAER, 11 Indraprastha Estate, New Delhi
  • Abstract
    As part of a tradition that has been continuing since 2007, the seminar brought together the heads of five Institutes, at the NCAER campus, that is, NCAER, the Centre for Policy Research (CPR), the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), the India Development Foundation (IDF), and the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), to discuss and present a reform and development perspective on the 2023-24 Union Budget. The speakers at this 17th edition of the Budget seminar included Poonam Gupta from NCAER, Deepak Mishra from ICRIER, Nishant Chadha from IDF, R. Kavita Rao from NIPFP, and Yamini Aiyar from CPR.
     
    The discussion was chaired by V. Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India.
     
    During her presentation, the Director General of NCAER, Poonam Gupta pointed out, “The 2023-24 Union Budget focused on domestic consumption as the main engine of growth, followed by public investment as the second, albeit smaller, growth engine. Significantly, it has not equally supported private investment or exports as accelerators of economic growth or generators of employment. But then, key policy announcements need not be confined to the annual budgetary exercise. Let’s hope that equally zealous announcements would follow through the year to support exports and private investments, both domestic and foreign direct investments. This would be crucial for ensuring that the Indian economy accelerates on all four engines, and not just on two.”
     
    Flagging the issue of fiscal consolidation, R. Kavita Rao, Director, NIPFP, said, “Fiscal consolidation, as highlighted in the Budget, signifies an apt reflection of fiscal marksmanship.” She also said that the increase in capital expenditure announced in the Budget was a positive move but it remains to be seen if increase in capex really leads to an increase in employment, especially as most infrastructural development in recent years is being done through machines rather than human labour. She further opined, “Since the Government hopes to increase capex without increasing revenue expenditure, some re-allocation can be expected in capex. …There should also be room for freezing of revenue expenditure, if required.”
     
    According to Deepak Mishra, Director and Chief Executive, ICRIER, “The 2023-24 Budget is likely to be best remembered for giving everyone something to feel good about, without resorting to reckless and populist policies. The Finance Minister did a great balancing act with respect to the development trinity: growth, distribution (inclusion), and stability. But the Budget did not announce any bold structural reform to tackle some of the binding constraints facing the economy, especially those that can help India to overcome its export stagnation.”
     
    Focusing on the implications of Budget 2022-23 for the health and education sectors, and touching upon the themes of social security and jobs, Nishant Chadha, Fellow and Head, Projects, IDF, stated, “Productivity is multiplicative, and we need to create more productive jobs and to retain skilled people to build our economy. Overall, this Budget also makes it clear that education in the country needs a fix.”
     
    Yamini Aiyar, President, CPR, highlighted the underlying political economy behind the Budget, reflected in limited State capacity for implementing the various schemes launched by the Government. She argued, “Since there is a limit to capital expenditure, we need better management, better incentivisation of the States, and a better federal structure to deal with the federal vacuum that inevitably arises when the Union Government prioritises schemes. She also suggested, “Since India’s fiscal structure is quite decentralised and de-concentrated, States often wait for implementation of Centrally-sponsored schemes before executing them at the State level. The ultimate trade-off is that we do not invest in human capital—an area that needs to be addressed urgently.”
     
    Speaking on the occasion, the Chief Economic Adviser, Government of India, Dr V. Anantha Nageswaran noted, “The bulk of external market and other reforms have been undertaken in the last 20-30 years, and thereafter, we have been implementing incremental reforms, which is a focal point in the 2023-24 Budget.”
     
    Dr Nageswaran also lauded the current Budget for “ensuring that the system has been cleaned up and the databases updated successfully, as a result of which no beneficiary will be left out. In fact, the allocations for various Centrally-sponsored projects may have gone down in the last few years but money going into the hands of the beneficiaries has doubled because the systems have been streamlined, leakages have been plugged, outputs are improving, and the process of identifying beneficiaries has been successfully and efficiently implemented.”
     
    Dr Nageswaran also expressed his appreciation for the manner in which India had handled and implemented the vaccination programme post the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. “Unlike many other countries, including the advanced economies, India implemented its vaccination programme with tremendous efficiency, successfully vaccinating over 1 billion people, and even managing to export vaccines to countries that could not access them otherwise.”
     
    Finally, Dr Nageswaran touched upon the issue of the debt-to-GDP ratio, and averred that India was only one of three countries worldwide (Indonesia and Germany being the other two) where the debt-to-GDP ratio had been kept under check during the pandemic years, going up by only 3 per cent, from 81 per cent to 84 per cent—a significant achievement, not witnessed even in many advanced economies.
  • Contact email policy.communications@nipfp.org.in

Seminar

The effect of a minimum wage increase on government transfers to low wage workers

  • Speaker Anwita Mahajan
  • Speaker profile

    Anwita Mahajan is a Ph.D. student at Georgetown University. After receiving her B.A. in Economics from Dartmouth College, she worked with Professor Jonathan Gruber at Massachusetts Institute of Technology on microsimulation of health policy in India.  Anwita has a publication in the Journal of the American Medical Association on the effects of managed care organizations on physician outcomes. She has works in progress in the fields of health economics, labor economics and public finance. She has taught undergraduate Statistics and been teaching assistant for several courses.

  • Date Wed, 18 January, 2023
  • Time 03:30 PM - 05:00 PM
  • Venue Conference Room, R&T Building
  • Abstract

    The Congressional Budget Office estimates that a rise in income from a minimum wage increase will make some low wage workers ineligible for welfare benefits and reduce welfare participation. On the other hand, a minimum wage increase will result in unemployment for some workers who will begin participating in welfare. Overall, they estimate a net increase in government expenditure on Medicaid (Health Insurance) solely from the newly unemployed workers and a reduction in expenditure on SNAP (Food Stamps). I use the Survey of Income and Program Participation to empirically examine how state level minimum wage increases between 2013 and 2016 affect participation in Medicaid and SNAP. From my preliminary findings, I suggest that welfare exits after a minimum wage increase are negligible and welfare take up might increase even amongst employed workers. I examine the extent of income gains from a minimum wage increase and adjustment behavior by firms as potential explanations for these findings. I also suggest that some welfare programs are stickier than others, and that these findings have implications on optimal policy design and policy coordination.

  • Contact email amey.sapre@nipfp.org.in

Seminar

The Pre-Budget (FY 2023-24) Review of the Indian Economy 2022-23


Seminar

Tax Distortions from Inflation: What are They? How to Deal with Them (Reminder)

  • Speaker Dr. Alexander D. Klemm
  • Speaker profile
    Dr. Alexander D. Klemm is Division Chief, Tax Policy, Fiscal Affairs Division, IMF, Washington DC
     
  • Date Mon, 12 December, 2022
  • Time 03:30 PM - 04:30 PM
  • Venue Conference Hall, R&T building
  • Contact email amey.sapre@nipfp.org.in

Seminar

Global Tax Symposium- 2022

  • Date Thu, 01 December, 2022 - Fri, 02 December, 2022
  • Venue Webinar
  • Abstract
    The mission of the Global Tax Symposia (GTS) is to be an interdisciplinary mobile research platform on fundamental issues of international and comparative taxation. It is grounded in the belief that crossing African, American, Asian-Pacific and European perspectives is beneficial to all participants, especially in the current political and economic global context. It aims to offer young researchers and experienced scholars a forum in which to discuss five to six papers every year in different cities on all continents. Each paper is discussed by an interdisciplinary and intercontinental panel whose members are leading tax academics, tax practitioners, tax officials and tax policymakers.
     
    The following institutions support the initiative: Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (Argentina), University of Melbourne and the University of NSW Sydney (Australia), University of Louvain (Belgium), University of São Paulo (Brazil), McGill University (Canada), Wuhan University (People’s Republic of China), Sorbonne Law School (France), University of Münster (Germany), National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (India),Gajah Mada University (Indonesia), Meiji University (Japan), University of Seoul (Republic of Korea), Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (Mexico), Leiden University and ERC funded project GLOBTAXGOV (The Netherlands), University of Auckland(New Zealand), Moscow University (Russia), King Saud University(Saudi Arabia), University of Pretoria (South Africa), Stockholm University (Sweden),Koç University (Turkey), London School of Economics (United Kingdom), and New York University (United States of America).
     
    For more information about the global tax symposium visit: http://globaltaxsymposium.wordpress.com/
  • Contact email suranjali.tandon@nipfp.org.in

Seminar

Conference on Impact of GST on Indian Economy


Seminar

Workshop on Credit Markets

  • Date Thu, 03 November, 2022 - Fri, 04 November, 2022
  • Venue Conference Room, R&T Building
  • Abstract

    The workshop includes presentations and discussions on how and why households access credit markets, how firms are accessing credit markets, what has been the change in firm financing over the last few years and how are central and state governments accessing credit markets.

  • Schedule
  • Contact email renuka.sane@nipfp.org.in

Seminar

Taxation transformation of businesses enabled by information systems: an empirical study of Goods and Services Tax implementation in India

  • Speaker Pankaj Dikshit
  • Speaker profile

    Colonel Pankaj Dikshit has rich and varied experience in the domain of technology driven strategic digital transformations at the national level. He majored in Computer Tech from IIT Delhi and over the course of two decades has designed technology solutions for transforming and digitizing the Army’s messaging and communication systems. He led the GST System program implementation including important rollouts such as the e-invoice, national e-Way Bill system and RFID based vehicle movement tracking through the national highway tolls. He has also created GST-centric eco-systems with the leading fintech companies of India like the GSP eco system and the e-invoice IRP eco-system. Previously, he worked in IBM India and since 2015 is with the GSTN as the Senior Vice President and on the academic side, he has submitted his thesis for a doctorate from IIT Delhi.

  • Date Fri, 21 October, 2022
  • Time 03:30 PM - 05:00 PM
  • Venue Conference Room, R&T Building
  • Abstract

    This research studies the largest e-governance initiative of India that used a single information system to transform its taxation system. The study assesses the success of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) e-governance information system using the DeLone and McLean model. The model is also expanded to assess this very large and transformative reform from the perspective of policy intervention by the government and to examine the induction of technostress on users. The structural equation modelling (SEM) technique is used to analyse the responses of 937 companies. The findings demonstrate the acceptance and success of this gigantic reform, validating that frequent policy intervention positively contributed to the successful rollout. The research finds that service quality had the least influence in the use of the e-government system and also studies whether the swift transformation triggered technostress factors in users of the system. 

  • Contact email amey.sapre@nipfp.org.in

Seminar

Special Economic Zones and local economic development: Evidence from Indian municipality (Reminder)

  • Speaker Johannes Gallé (Ruhr University Bochum), Daniel Overbeck (University of Mannheim), Nadine Riedel (University of Münster), Tobia
  • Speaker profile
    Johannes Gallé is a PhD student at the Ruhr-University Bochum (RUB) and is part of the first cohort of the RTG 2484 “Regional Disparities and Economic Policy”, which is funded by the German Research Foundation (https://www.regional-disparities.de). He studied economics at the University of Freiburg, where he obtained his Bachelors and Masters degree. In his thesis, he empirically analyzed the contemporary nexus of local institutions and civil conflict in India. Furthermore, Johannes spent one semester abroad at the University of Auckland and completed several internships, e.g. at the Indo-German Chamber of Commerce in Pune and a voluntary service in a residential care home in Auckland. His research interests comprise regional, development and environmental economics with a focus on applied microeconometrics.
  • Date Wed, 06 April, 2022
  • Time 03:30 PM
  • Venue Conference Room, Ground Floor, R&T Building, NIPFP
  • Abstract
    This paper quantifies the local economic effects of 147 Special Economic Zones (SEZs) that were established in India between 2005 and 2013. Combining census data on the universe of Indian firms with georeferenced data on SEZs, we find that SEZ establishment increased both employment and firm entry in SEZ-hosting municipalities and neighboring localities (up to a distance of 10km). We provide suggestive evidence that the observed increase reflects genuinely new economic activity rather than relocated activity from neighboring jurisdictions. We further show that employment gains are centered around male workers. Females, who are a particularly vulnerable group in the Indian labor market, hardly benefit. Many of the new jobs are, moreover, created by small and informal firms. Finally, we document that the impact of SEZs on spatial economic activity can hinge on zones’ industry denomination and development by a public or private developer.
  • Contact email amey.sapre@nipfp.org.in

Seminar

Training program in Public Finance for officers of Govt. of Bangladesh

  • Date Mon, 21 March, 2022 - Fri, 01 April, 2022
  • Venue Classroom, R&T Building, NIPFP
  • Abstract

    NIPFP is organising a two-weeks training program for officials of Govt. of Bangladesh from 21st March to 1st April, 2022. Lectures will be held in-person in the classroom (R&T Building) 

  • Schedule
  • Contact email amey.sapre@nipfp.org.in

Seminar

The Political Budget Cycles in the Presence of a Fiscal Rule: The Case of Farm Debt Waivers in India

  • Speaker Vidya Mahambare and Sowmya Dhanaraj
  • Speaker profile
    Vidya Mahambare, Professor of Economics at Great Lakes Institute of Management, Chennai, has a Masters in International Trade and Finance and a PhD in Economics from Lancaster Management School. She is a 2020 joint winner of the Emergent Ventures Grant by The Mercatus Centre, George Mason University. She has published in journals such as Economics Letters, Oxford Economic Papers, World Development, Feminist Economics. She is currently a member of the Expert Committee of the Tamil Nadu State Planning Commission set up to draft the policy on employability. Earlier Vidya was with Cardiff Business School and was Principal Economist at CRISIL. She writes opinion articles for popular media outlets including Mint and The Print.
     
     
    Sowmya Dhanaraj obtained her PhD from Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Studies, Mumbai. She is currently Assistant Professor at Madras School of Economics. Her research interests include Applied Microeconomics, Development Economics, with a particular focus on labour, gender, education and health issues. She has published in journals like Feminist Economics, World Development, Education Economics, Health Policy and Planning, Journal of Financial Economic Policy, among others. She has also written articles for the print media like The Mint, The Hindu Business Line, Hindustan Times and The Print. She has jointly won research grants from Azim Premji University and Emergent Ventures, George Mason University and is currently a member of the expert committee on education and employment for TN State Planning Commission.
     
     
  • Date Tue, 08 February, 2022
  • Time 03:30 PM
  • Venue Webinar
  • Abstract

    Farm debt waivers which are meant to be a one-time settlement of loans have become common in India. This paper finds that the timing of waiver announcements by state governments between 2001-02 and 2018-19 is associated with the timing of elections after controlling for variables related to farming distress. This points towards a pattern of policy manipulation that suggests election-year targeting of the largest special interest group in India, namely farming households. The waivers, either announced prior to elections by incumbent governments or election pledges which are fulfilled after the election win, are unanticipated shocks to government revenue expenditure. We find that the waivers are associated with an increased revenue deficit, which is accommodated by a nearly 1/3rd cut in capital outlay to control the fiscal deficit, given the fiscal rule. Given its path dependence, lower capital expenditure also reduces the quality of government spending in subsequent years.  

  • Contact email amey.sapre@nipfp.org.in

Seminar

16th Five institutions Union Budget Seminar 2022: Unpacking the Union Budget -2022-23

  • Date Mon, 07 February, 2022
  • Time 06:00 PM
  • Venue join via Zoom link
  • Abstract
    The event is being jointly organised by the CPR, ICRIER, IDF, NCAER and NIPFP.
     
    The session will be Online via Zoom.  It will be moderated by Mythili Bhusnurmath, Consulting Editor, Economic Times & Senior Advisor, NCAER.  
     
    Kindly register on the link and join via Zoom link:
     

     


Seminar

Determinants of Tax Morale in India (Reminder)

  • Speaker Chinmay N Korgaonkar, IRS
  • Speaker profile

    Chinmay N Korgaonkar belongs to the 2010 batch of Indian Revenue Service (Income Tax). He is currently serving as the faculty at the National Academy of Direct Taxes, Nagpur, the training academy for the IRS (IT) officers. Before joining the academy, he worked in the field offices of the Income tax department, gaining experience in taxpayer services and investigation of tax evasion.

  • Date Thu, 13 January, 2022
  • Time 03:30 PM
  • Venue Webinar
  • Abstract

    This is a study of tax morale in India. The concept of tax morale or the citizens’ attitude towards tax compliance is vital for the design and implementation of fiscal policy. Tax morale can foster voluntary compliance and hence support the enforcement and deterrence-driven approaches of the tax agencies. However, limited literature regarding the tax morale of Indian citizens is available. The present paper tries to bridge the gap by analyzing the available data for India from the 5 waves of the World Values Survey (1990-2014). Treating tax morale as a dependent variable, this study estimates the factors influencing it. We show that the trust in government, parliament, and civil services positively affects the tax morale of Indian citizens. The correlation between trust in the legal system and tax morale was also positive but not significant. Among the socio-economic variables, education improves the intrinsic motivation of individuals towards tax compliance. Interestingly, the full-time/salaried persons have lower tax morale as compared to the self-employed employees. This finding has important policy implications, given that the full-time/salaried class contributes a significant share of the total taxes paid by the individual taxpayers in India.

  • Contact email amey.sapre@nipfp.org.in