An autonomous research institute under the Ministry of Finance


The myth of India’s import dependence


In the wake of the growing military tension on the India-China border, there have been calls for boycott of Chinese products. These have little impact on strategic reality. Equally, the plea that India cannot afford to do without Chinese imports is not a truism.
If bilateral tensions escalate, then ...

Does India’s current system of fiscal transfers undermine the spirit of co-operative federalism?


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(Co-authored with Atul Sarma)

To contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, the government imposed a nationwide lockdown starting from March 25. As all economic activity came to a standstill, there was a large-scale disruption of livelihoods, accompanied by the spread of starvation and disease. A measure to address ...

CHAMPIONS can ease MSME pain only if it effectively helps implement govt’s relief measures


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(Co-authored with Amrita Pillai)


In an ongoing effort to help the MSMEs, the Ministry of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises launched the CHAMPIONS portal in May. The acronym stands for Creation and Harmonious Application of Modern Processes for Increasing Output and National Strength.
Touted as a one-stop, single-window ...

Intuition, not prediction


There is a difference between an estimate, a projection, and a forecast. Projections extrapolate on past trends. Forecasts are based on an economic model that uses data to forecast future economic magnitudes.
The Covid crisis makes “data driven” projections inaccurate, as the past provides zero guidance for the future ...

Articulate an economic strategy


The country has been in lockdown mode since March 24, administered centrally by the Ministry of Home Affairs, using powers conferred under the National Disaster Management Act. The approach has thus far been an administrative one, the overarching aim being to minimise the spread of the epidemic. Subject to this ...